APPENDIX 1
MEDIUM TERM FINANCIAL STRATEGY TABLES
Core Planning Assumptions
The table below sets out the core planning assumptions included in the MTFS projections:
|
|
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
2026/27 |
2027/28 |
2028/29 |
|
Pay inflation and pay related matters: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Provision for pay award |
3.00% |
2.75% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
- Employers pension contribution rate change |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
General inflation: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Inflation on social care third party payments |
3.50% |
3.00% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
- Inflation on non-pay expenditure |
1.00% - 3.00% |
1.00% - 3.00% |
1.00% - 3.00% |
1.00% - 3.00% |
1.00% - 3.00% |
|
- Inflation on waste PFI |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
|
- Inflation on income |
3.50% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
2.50% |
|
- Inflation on parking income |
3.50% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
2.50% |
|
- Inflation on penalty charge notices |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
Resources: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Change to Revenue Support Grant (RSG) |
6.70% |
1.64% |
1.63% |
1.64% |
2.00% |
|
Business rates poundage inflation uplift |
6.70% |
1.64% |
1.63% |
1.64% |
2.00% |
|
Assumed council tax threshold increase |
2.99% |
2.99% |
2.99% |
2.99% |
2.99% |
|
Adult Social Care Precept |
2.00% |
0.00%* |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
Council Tax Base |
0.90% |
1.50%** |
0.75% |
0.75% |
0.50% |
*The assumption for additional funding for Adult social Care is the equivalent to a 2% precept in 2025/26, currently assumed to be in the form of additional grant.
**Includes the introduction of Second Homes Premium which is equivalent to a 0.9% increase in the tax base
Summary of MTFS projections
The table below sets out the savings /budget gap, taking into account the anticipated expenditure over the MTFS period and the funding resources available:
|
Medium Term Financial Strategy 2025 to 2029 |
2025/26 |
2026/27 |
2027/28 |
2028/29 |
|
£m |
£m |
£m |
£m |
|
|
Net Budget Requirement B/Fwd |
246.355 |
269.489 |
278.339 |
287.503 |
|
Remove net one off short term funding and expenditure |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Net Budget Requirement B/Fwd |
246.355 |
269.489 |
278.339 |
287.503 |
|
Standard Pay and Inflation – Expenditure |
13.093 |
12.161 |
12.450 |
12.811 |
|
Standard Inflation - Income |
(3.283) |
(3.613) |
(3.718) |
(3.260) |
|
Demographic and inflationary pressures in Adult Social Care including Adult Learning Disabilities |
9.193 |
13.863 |
14.666 |
15.019 |
|
Demographic and inflationary pressures for Children’s disability, Children in Care, and Care Leavers |
3.732 |
3.444 |
3.337 |
3.249 |
|
Temporary Accommodation and Rough Sleepers - cost and demand pressures |
2.340 |
0.193 |
0.198 |
0.204 |
|
Home to School Transport - cost and demand pressures |
0.513 |
0.133 |
0.138 |
0.143 |
|
Schools PFI contract commitments |
0.180 |
0.561 |
0.596 |
0.000 |
|
Dedicated Schools Grant (DSG) - High Needs Block - review of usage |
3.044 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Income Pressures – falling demand |
3.026 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Increased cost of public realm maintenance and food waste pilot |
2.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Concessionary Bus Fares - increased burden due to change in calculation |
1.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
All other pressures across council services |
6.905 |
4.383 |
4.385 |
3.590 |
|
Mainstream Digital and Transformation Support Functions |
2.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Commitment - Reduction/loss of Services Grant/New Homes Bonus |
0.133 |
0.160 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Commitment - Change in S31 Grants |
10.149 |
(0.400) |
(0.411) |
(0.486) |
|
Commitment - Change in contributions to/from reserves |
0.320 |
0.000 |
(1.125) |
0.000 |
|
Commitment - Change in financing Costs |
4.223 |
1.033 |
(0.195) |
0.953 |
|
Commitment - Pay award 2024/25 above 3% inflation assumption |
1.300 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Commitment - impact of previous decisions, grant changes and assumptions |
(0.004) |
0.860 |
0.350 |
0.242 |
|
Budget Gap (Savings Requirement) |
(36.730) |
(23.982) |
(21.543) |
(23.247) |
|
Budget Requirement C/Fwd |
269.489 |
278.339 |
287.503 |
296.721 |
|
Funded by: |
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue Support Grant |
8.592 |
8.732 |
8.875 |
9.051 |
|
Locally retained Business Rates |
67.477 |
68.911 |
70.382 |
72.126 |
|
Collection Fund position |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Council Tax including Adult Social Care Precept |
193.420 |
200.696 |
208.246 |
215.544 |
|
Total Funding |
269.489 |
278.339 |
287.503 |
296.721 |